Jordan vs Argentina: Upset Odds & Betting Guide

Jordan face Argentina on Saturday, 27 June at Dallas Stadium in Group J, Matchday 3 of the FIFA World Cup 2026. The reigning world champions arrive having dismantled Algeria 3-0, while Jordan, on their World Cup debut, showed genuine fight in a 3-1 loss to Austria and scored their first-ever World Cup goal. The gap in quality is real, but Jordan have a path, and the odds reflect a story that may not be fully written yet.

The Case for the Underdog

Jordan are not here by accident. Coached by Jamal Sellami, they reached the 2024 AFC Asian Cup final, a campaign that proved they can handle high-pressure knockout football. Their attacking threat centres on Rennes forward Mousa Al Tamari, who scored seven and assisted 11 in club football last season and netted seven in qualifying. That is not a passenger, that is a genuine wide threat capable of punishing a high defensive line.

Against Austria, Jordan conceded three but they competed, pressed, and created. Ali Olwan's solo goal showed individual quality at the highest level. Midfielder Al Rawabdeh acknowledged the squad shed its first-match nerves and expects the team to be "more enjoyable" going forward. A settled, confident Jordan unit heading into their final group game is a different proposition from the debutants who took the field in Matchday 1.

Argentina, for all their brilliance, build their system around Lionel Messi. Neutralise the space he operates in, stay compact in two disciplined banks, and force the game into a grinding, low-scoring affair, and Jordan's implied probability of 7% (margin included, implied from 15.00) starts to feel like it underestimates what a disciplined defensive performance could produce.

Upset Scenarios and Odds

The most realistic path to a Jordan shock result runs through a resolute defensive shape, a set-piece goal, and Al Tamari exploiting space on the counter. Argentina's fullbacks push high when building out, and a quick transition through Al Tamari could expose them on the break, exactly the kind of scenario that produces shock results at major tournaments.

For bettors backing Jordan or looking for value away from the Argentina win market, the most relevant markets are Draw No Bet (which returns your stake if Argentina win but pays out on a Jordan win), Double Chance Jordan or Draw, and the Jordan +Handicap market. These markets are available at current prices via Dexsport, correct at time of writing.

The draw carries an implied probability of 15% (margin included, implied from 6.50). That is not negligible. A Jordan side that keeps it tight for 60 minutes and converts one moment of quality could force Argentina into a tense final half hour, and tournament football has seen stranger things.

Jordan vs Argentina Match Preview

This is Jordan's final group game and it arrives against the most difficult opponent imaginable. Under the expanded 48-team format, third-placed sides can still advance, which means Jordan's World Cup is not over even with one loss on the board. A result here, even a draw, could be enough to see them through depending on results elsewhere in Group J.

Argentina, coached by Lionel Scaloni, will look to control possession, build through Rodrigo De Paul in midfield, and create for Messi, Julian Alvarez, and Lautaro Martinez. Their expected approach is patient and structured, using width and movement to open compact defences. Jordan will need to stay disciplined for long periods and take their moments when they arrive.

Jordan vs Argentina Odds

Argentina at 1.18 reflects the bookmaker consensus clearly: this is as close to a certainty as the market prices. The implied probability on Argentina (margin included) sits at 85%, leaving Jordan and the draw sharing the remaining 22% of the market.

Jordan vs Argentina Predictions

Best Bet: Argentina to Win. With an implied probability of 85% and a squad featuring Messi, Alvarez, Martinez, Enzo Fernandez, and Mac Allister, the rational anchor here is the Argentine win. Their 3-0 demolition of Algeria confirmed they are operating at full intensity, not coasting. Jordan conceded three to Austria. The quality gap is substantial.

Value Bet: Draw Double Chance (Jordan or Draw). The draw sits at 6.50, implying 15% probability. Jordan showed defensive organisation against Austria and will be more settled in their second game. If they execute a low-block and stay in the match past the hour mark, a draw is not impossible. The Double Chance market covering Jordan or Draw offers coverage at a more forgiving price point and is worth considering for those who believe Jordan can compete.

Longshot Bet: Jordan to Win at 15.00. This deserves honest attention rather than a dismissal. Jordan have Al Tamari, a player who produced 18 goal contributions last club season, and Olwan, who scored a solo World Cup goal on debut. If Argentina rotate or take their foot off the gas after a comfortable lead, or if Jordan score first and force a reaction, the chaos that follows could open the game. At 15.00, the implied probability is 7%. That is a small window, but it is a real one, and the payout reflects the genuine shock value of a Jordan win against the world champions.

Why This Match Matters

Jordan's World Cup debut has already made history. Ali Olwan's goal against Austria was the first World Cup goal in Jordanian football history, and the squad's pride at facing Messi and the world champions has run through the camp throughout preparation. For Jordan, this is a chance to announce themselves on the biggest stage. A result against Argentina would be one of the most significant moments in the history of Jordanian football.

For Argentina, this is about securing Group J and maintaining momentum heading into the knockout rounds. Messi, who scored a hat-trick against Algeria on his 200th cap to equal the all-time World Cup scoring record of 16 goals, will be looking to continue that form. The stakes are different for each side, and that asymmetry could play into Jordan's hands if Argentina manage the game rather than attack it from the first whistle.

Jordan Form and Argentina Form

Jordan: Making their World Cup debut, Jordan lost 3-1 to Austria in Matchday 2. They scored through Ali Olwan's solo effort, their first-ever World Cup goal. Coached by Jamal Sellami, they reached the 2024 AFC Asian Cup final. Key players include Mousa Al Tamari and Ali Olwan. Their strength is defensive organisation and counter-attacking pace. Their weakness is the level of quality they face in Argentina's midfield and attack.

Possible XI: Abulaila; Abu Dahab, Nasib, Al-Arab; Haddad, Abu Taha, Al-Rashdan, Al-Rawabdeh; Al-Mardi, Olwan; Al-Tamari.

Argentina: The 2022 world champions opened with a 3-0 win over Algeria, with Messi scoring a hat-trick on his 200th cap, equalling the all-time World Cup scoring record of 16 goals. Coached by Lionel Scaloni, their squad includes De Paul, Mac Allister, Enzo Fernandez, Lautaro Martinez, Julian Alvarez, and goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez. They dominate possession and build through De Paul, creating around Messi.

Possible XI: E Martinez; Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Tagliafico; De Paul, Mac Allister, E Fernandez, Almada; Messi, J Alvarez.

Best Bets and Markets Worth Watching

• Argentina Match Winner (1.18): The rational, low-risk anchor for any accumulator or single bet on this fixture.
• Jordan or Draw Double Chance: Covers both upset scenarios at a more accessible price than backing Jordan outright.
• Jordan +Handicap: If Jordan keep it competitive, a handicap market could offer better value than the straight match winner.
• Jordan to Win (15.00): The longshot with genuine story behind it. Al Tamari's quality and Jordan's improving confidence make this worth a small stake for high-reward seekers.
• Both Teams to Score: Jordan scored against Austria and have the attacking quality through Al Tamari and Olwan to threaten Argentina's defence. Worth considering if you believe Jordan will get on the scoresheet.

Popular Betting Options

For this fixture, you can explore all available markets including match winner, Both Teams to Score, Over/Under, correct score, and first goalscorer at Dexsport, a crypto-native sportsbook that supports Bitcoin and other digital assets for deposits and withdrawals. If you prefer to use cryptocurrency for your World Cup betting, Dexsport offers a straightforward way to access these markets without the friction of traditional payment methods.

Betting Tips

• Tip 1: Argentina to win. The implied probability is 85% and their form against Algeria was emphatic. Suitable as a safe single or accumulator leg.
• Tip 2: Double Chance Jordan or Draw. Jordan showed they can score and compete. A settled Matchday 3 performance could produce a surprise point.
• Tip 3: Jordan +Handicap. Even in a loss, Jordan keeping the margin tight is a realistic outcome given their defensive structure.
• Tip 4: Both Teams to Score. Jordan scored their first World Cup goal on debut and have a forward in Al Tamari who produced 18 goal contributions last club season. Argentina will almost certainly score, so the question is whether Jordan can add to their World Cup tally.
• Tip 5: Jordan to Win as a small longshot stake. At 15.00, the potential return justifies a small speculative bet if you believe in the upset narrative.

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FAQ

Can Jordan realistically win this match?
The bookmaker-implied probability of a Jordan win is 7% (margin included, implied from 15.00). That is a small but real window. Jordan have shown attacking quality through Al Tamari and Olwan, and their improved confidence heading into Matchday 3 means a shock is not impossible, just unlikely.

What are the most plausible upset scenarios?
Jordan keeping a tight defensive shape, scoring from a set piece or counter-attack through Al Tamari, and forcing Argentina into a nervy second half. The longer Jordan stay in the match without conceding, the more pressure builds on the favourites.

Which markets reward backing the outsider?
Draw No Bet on Jordan removes the draw risk. Double Chance (Jordan or Draw) covers both upset outcomes. The Jordan +Handicap market offers value if you expect a competitive but losing performance. Jordan to Win outright at 15.00 is the maximum-return option.

Is the draw a smart play here?
The draw is priced at 6.50, implying 15% probability (margin included). Jordan are more settled after their debut and will set up to be hard to break down. If they execute their defensive plan and Argentina fail to convert early, the draw is a live possibility and the odds offer genuine value for the risk taken.